Invariantum

Microsoft's moat is a coordination lock on the enterprise substrate: identity, file formats, compatibility. No lender-style coordinator can reassign it, and two antitrust cases failed to. But a paradigm shift can bypass it, as mobile proved. The OpenAI exclusivity ended April 2026, damaging an optional layer. $190bn AI capex is mandatory to hold the substrate yet buys no moat, levering returns to that layer. Intact. Tier B.

FICO's moat was a coordination lock: no lender could leave alone, because the score was the language its counterparties transacted in. In July 2025 the FHFA permitted VantageScore, converting that lock into ordinary switching costs in mortgage. Bureaus now bundle the rival free. Share hasn't moved; pricing authority is under attack from a regulator, the Senate and the FTC. Damaged in one channel. Rejected.

Hermès Layer 2. After a ~45% fall (peak €2,957 to ~€1,627), the moat is retested before price: intact, five clean, one amber (resale ~1.4x, barbell). Decline is mostly cyclical: currency, Middle East, China proxy selling, de-rating from a ~68x bubble peak to ~38x on flat earnings, so multiple compression, not impairment. Spine: if the moat holds, earnings compound and price recovers. Plan: two-thirds now, one-third for a ~27x tail; 29 July print a mechanical derisk checkpoint

Hermès has an exceptional, highly durable moat built on controlled scarcity, unmatched craftsmanship, owned distribution, and governance that enforces long-term discipline. Its pricing power remains unconstrained, with regular price increases absorbed without volume loss. No invalidation conditions are triggered; only resale premium compression is monitored. The moat remains intact, making Hermès eligible for further valuation if shares materially dislocate.