Midterms, Drawdowns, and the Post-Election Pattern
Midterm elections often follow pre-election drawdowns and precede strong rebounds as policy uncertainty fades. However, liquidity conditions and macro regime ultimately determine post-election market performance.
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The reverse repo drain: liquidity regime shift near completion?
RRP surged post-QE as excess liquidity parked at the Fed, then drained amid QT and rising T-bill issuance. With the cushion gone, liquidity tightens and shocks propagate faster.
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