Microsoft, Layer 1: Moat Analysis
Microsoft's moat is a coordination lock on the enterprise substrate: identity, file formats, compatibility. No lender-style coordinator can reassign it, and two antitrust cases failed to. But a paradigm shift can bypass it, as mobile proved. The OpenAI exclusivity ended April 2026, damaging an optional layer. $190bn AI capex is mandatory to hold the substrate yet buys no moat, levering returns to that layer. Intact. Tier B.
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