Invariantum

Hermès Layer 2. After a ~45% fall (peak €2,957 to ~€1,627), the moat is retested before price: intact, five clean, one amber (resale ~1.4x, barbell). Decline is mostly cyclical: currency, Middle East, China proxy selling, de-rating from a ~68x bubble peak to ~38x on flat earnings, so multiple compression, not impairment. Spine: if the moat holds, earnings compound and price recovers. Plan: two-thirds now, one-third for a ~27x tail; 29 July print a mechanical derisk checkpoint

Hermès has an exceptional, highly durable moat built on controlled scarcity, unmatched craftsmanship, owned distribution, and governance that enforces long-term discipline. Its pricing power remains unconstrained, with regular price increases absorbed without volume loss. No invalidation conditions are triggered; only resale premium compression is monitored. The moat remains intact, making Hermès eligible for further valuation if shares materially dislocate.