Invariantum

Hermès has fallen ~43% from its 2025 peak, but Layer 1 reads the moat clean, so this is almost pure multiple compression, from ~68x to ~39x, the floor it has held since 2018. At €1,678 the price only asks for the growth the disclosed model already produces. Recovery needs the moat to hold and earnings to compound; multiple reversion just speeds it up. Deploy two thirds now, reserve one third for a fall to ~27x. Sell only if Layer 1 breaks.

Layer 1 (rev. 8 Aug): moat re-tested on H1 2026 — seven conditions clean, no watch items, Tier A. Resale premium now measured directly: 173 observations, rationed formats at 2.47–3.12x retail.